The 2026 NBA Cup begins on Friday, Oct. 30, marking the fourth season of the NBA's in-season competition. History was made last year when the New York Knicks became the first team to achieve the NBA double, winning both the NBA Cup and the NBA championship in the same season, defeating the San Antonio Spurs in both finals. While some still question the Cup's significance, teams increasingly view it as an early-season proving ground that can build confidence for postseason success. The 2026 edition will be decided over the next six weeks, with four group-stage games determining the eight teams that advance to the knockout rounds, culminating in the championship at historic Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis on Dec. 11.
Group Stage Alignment
The group stage features six groups across the Eastern and Western Conferences. East Group A includes the Detroit Pistons, Toronto Raptors, Orlando Magic, Milwaukee Bucks, and Brooklyn Nets. East Group B comprises the New York Knicks, Cleveland Cavaliers, Philadelphia 76ers, Miami Heat, and Indiana Pacers. East Group C consists of the Boston Celtics, Atlanta Hawks, Charlotte Hornets, Chicago Bulls, and Washington Wizards. West Group A features the Denver Nuggets, Houston Rockets, Phoenix Suns, Dallas Mavericks, and Utah Jazz. West Group B includes the Oklahoma City Thunder, Minnesota Timberwolves, Los Angeles Clippers, New Orleans Pelicans, and Memphis Grizzlies. West Group C is made up of the San Antonio Spurs, Los Angeles Lakers, Portland Trail Blazers, Golden State Warriors, and Sacramento Kings.
Prediction 1: Knicks Fail to Advance from Group Stage
Despite finally raising an NBA Cup banner at Madison Square Garden, the Knicks are predicted to continue the streak of defending Cup champions failing to escape the group stage the following year. The Lakers and Bucks both missed the knockout rounds while defending their titles, and the Knicks are expected to make it three straight years. New York drew a brutal East Group B that includes the 76ers, Cavaliers, Heat, and Pacers.
Prediction 2: Trail Blazers Win West Group C
While the Spurs are favorites and the Lakers a threat, the Trail Blazers are seen as built for the Cup. An early-season competition suits a Portland team that is still healthy and flying high with its star backcourt duo of Damian Lillard and Ja Morant. Lillard has already lifted the Cup once with Milwaukee and will be hungry to lead his young Blazers teammates to similar glory. They could shock Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs in the group and reach the knockouts, where "Dame Time" gives them a puncher's chance in any matchup.
Prediction 3: Kings Set Record for Negative Point Differential
The Kings have already lost games by 25 and 27 points in just four games this season, and the schedule has not yet reached the portion where teams are incentivized to run up the score. Sacramento plays in West Group C alongside the Spurs, Lakers, Blazers, and Warriors, each of which will view their matchup with the Kings as an opportunity to boost point differential. The current record for worst point differential in four group-stage games belongs to the 2025 Jazz, who finished at -85 despite winning a game. That mark is expected to fall as the Kings could be on the wrong end of historic beatdowns in another long season for Sacramento.
Prediction 4: Pistons and Celtics Decide Eastern Finalist
The Eastern Conference finalist will not come from the most-discussed teams of the summer, but from the Celtics and Pistons. Boston has a friendly path in East Group C, while Detroit's group looks more manageable with injuries to Paolo Banchero and Kawhi Leonard limiting their top competition. Both the Pistons and Celtics are off to terrific starts, and their continuity compared to other East contenders still integrating new-look squads will help them advance. These two teams are projected to meet in the semifinals for the right to face the predicted Western champion.
Prediction 5: Rockets Raise Cup Banner in Toyota Center
The 2026 NBA Cup champions will be the Houston Rockets. This is a team on a mission early in the season, and even with Alperen Sengun missing some time at the start of group play due to a back injury, they have a friendly path to the knockout rounds in West Group A (Denver, Phoenix, Dallas, and Utah). Fred VanVleet's return to the lineup has moved everyone back into their ideal roles, and the offense runs much more smoothly in the half-court — which was their downfall last postseason. Houston boasts great defenders, shooters, athletes, and Kevin Durant remains one of the NBA's biggest individual mismatches on offense. The Rockets fit the profile of past Cup finalists: teams trying to prove they can win at a high level beyond regular-season ball. After a first-round exit last season, Houston appears extremely focused on proving it is being slept on in a Western Conference that suddenly looks much more open than initially thought. The Cup can serve as a proving ground for this roster in higher-stakes scenarios, and the Rockets should be locked in on that opportunity.
