The Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos meet in an AFC West rematch with significant division implications as NFL Week 8 gets underway. The Chiefs (5-1) travel to face the Broncos (5-2) after Kansas City suffered its first loss of the season, a 20-3 defeat at Seattle, while Denver has won three consecutive games. Kansas City won the previous meeting 31-10 in Week 1, but the Broncos have won the last three matchups on their home field.
Denver receives a major boost with star cornerback Patrick Surtain II set to return from a three-game absence due to an ankle injury. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25 p.m. ET at Empower Field at Mile High.
Oddsmakers list the Chiefs as 1.5-point favorites with an over/under of 41.5 points. The money line sits at Chiefs -112, Broncos -103.
A proven predictive model that simulates each game 10,000 times and has returned a 58-51 record on top-rated picks since 2024 leans toward the under on the total. The under has hit in five of seven Broncos games and four of six Chiefs games this season. Kansas City's defense has held three of six opponents to 10 points or fewer, while Denver's offense ranks in the bottom 10 in both rushing and passing. The Broncos' defense has limited its last three opponents to between 14 and 17 points. The Chiefs' offense is paced by running back Kenneth Walker III, who has accumulated 701 rushing yards, while Denver prefers a run-first approach. The model projects 41 combined points, giving the under a 55% probability of cashing.
The model also indicates one side of the spread hits in over 50% of simulations. Detailed spread recommendations are available through the model's full analysis.
