Major League Baseball's free-agent market may heat up significantly in November as clubs and players rush to finalize deals before the current collective bargaining agreement expires on December 1. The looming lockout creates urgency for both sides, echoing the spending spree that preceded the last work stoppage in 2021.
Previous Lockout Precedent
In November 2021, MLB teams committed more than $1.7 billion to free agents just before the CBA expired and owners locked out players. The Texas Rangers alone spent over $560 million on Jon Gray, Corey Seager, and Marcus Semien — a trio that helped deliver the franchise's first World Series title in 2023. Five players signed nine-figure contracts in the weeks leading up to that lockout, demonstrating that uncertainty about a new CBA does not necessarily curb spending.
NPB Players Face Hard Deadline
Japanese players posted by Nippon Professional Baseball clubs face a compressed timeline this year. MLB has declined to amend the posting agreement, meaning the 45-day negotiating window will not be paused during a lockout. Three notable NPB free agents — Hanshin Tigers third baseman Teruaki Sato, Seibu Lions right-hander Kaima Taira, and Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters right-hander Hiromi Itoh — were posted on November 1 and must sign by December 1 or return to Japan for the 2027 season.
Skubal Expected to Trigger Domino Effect
Left-hander Tarik Skubal, regarded as the top free agent available, is expected to sign before the lockout, according to ESPN. His decision could set off a chain reaction among big-spending clubs such as the Blue Jays, Cubs, Dodgers, and Mets. Teams that miss out on Skubal may quickly pivot to secondary targets like Freddy Peralta and Trevor Rogers, accelerating the market for starting pitching.
New CBA Rules Likely Phased In
Even if a salary cap is adopted in the next CBA, implementation would likely be gradual. MLB has indicated a willingness to phase in a cap over several years, giving high-payroll clubs like the Dodgers, Mets, and Yankees time to adjust. As Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro noted, "You prepare under the current system, and then you adjust along the way." This suggests November may be the last window for teams to spend freely before new financial constraints take hold.
