The second of three annual service academy matchups takes place Saturday night at 7:30 p.m. ET on CBS, with Army hosting Air Force at Blaik Field at Michie Stadium in West Point, New York. A victory for the Falcons would secure the Commander in Chief's Trophy for the first time since 2022, after they defeated Navy 14-9 earlier this season in Colorado Springs.
Quarterback Uncertainty for Air Force
Air Force enters at 6-2 and bowl-eligible following a win over UConn, but faces significant quarterback questions. Starter Evan Medders is dealing with a turf toe injury and missed the UConn game, thrusting freshman Howard Fisher — originally the third-stringer — into action. Medders himself was a replacement for the injured Liam Szarka. Since Szarka's injury, the Falcons have all but abandoned the passing attack; Medders and Fisher have combined for just 23 pass attempts, 128 yards, and two touchdowns. With virtually no passing threat, Army's defense can focus entirely on stopping the option run game. The key concerns with a quarterback change in an option system are whether the new signal-caller makes correct reads and avoids ball-handling mistakes that could lead to turnovers in a low-scoring affair.
Army's Cale Hellums Holds Quarterback Advantage
Army has no such uncertainty at quarterback. Cale Hellums leads the team in both passing and rushing, providing a dynamic dual threat. The Black Knights' three losses this season, including last week against Memphis, have stemmed from defensive struggles — they rank 83rd nationally in scoring defense and 80th in rush defense. However, Hellums' ability to create explosive plays, either by breaking a long run or hitting a rare pass play over the top, could swing a game where clock control, field position, and ball security are paramount.
Hidden Yards Battle on Special Teams
Field position is critical in option-versus-option games, placing heavy emphasis on punting and coverage. Both teams boast excellent punters averaging over 47 yards per kick and have been stingy allowing returns. Air Force's punt coverage struggled early but has allowed only three returns for six yards in its last five games. Army has surrendered just 33 total yards on six returns all season. A single breakdown in the punt game could prove as decisive as a turnover in a contest likely to feature few possessions.
Prediction: Under 44.5 Points
Despite both teams typically playing in higher-scoring affairs — Air Force has had only two FBS games under 40 points, one being the 14-9 Navy win; Army has gone over this total in all but two games — service academy games historically defy statistical trends. The outcome will hinge on which team generates a handful of big plays across all three phases and which can wear down the opponent over 60 minutes. The pick is Under 44.5 points.
