The NFL survivor pool saw multiple upsets in Week 8 with losses by Dallas, Minnesota, Kansas City, and the New York Jets, eliminating many participants. With two teams on bye, Week 9 features only 15 games. The projection model, which simulates each game 10,000 times, has returned over $5,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since inception and entered Week 9 of the 2026 season on a 60-51 run dating back to 2024.
Key spreads have shifted: Cardinals vs. Seahawks moved from -12.5 to -8.5 after Sam Darnold was ruled out with a quad injury and Gardner Minshew replaced Jacoby Brissett for Arizona. Other notable favorites include the Texans at -6 against the Chargers, who are on a 10-game losing streak, and the 49ers at -9.5 over the Raiders. San Francisco holds an 8-1 outright record in its last nine post-bye games.
The model expresses low confidence in the 5-3 New England Patriots, who are 3-point favorites against the 5-3 Green Bay Packers at Gillette Stadium on Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET. New England rallied from a 13-3 halftime deficit to beat the 1-6 Dolphins 24-19 in Week 8. Green Bay, 2-2 on the road, is led by quarterback Jordan Love (61.5% completion, 2,246 yards, 16 touchdowns, six interceptions) with top targets Christian Watson (42 receptions, 708 yards, six touchdowns) and Matthew Golden (43 catches, 619 yards, four touchdowns). The Patriots, quarterbacked by Drake Maye (67.1% completion, 1,983 yards, 15 touchdowns, eight interceptions), will be without receiver A.J. Brown (knee) and running back TreVeyon Henderson (illness). The model projects New England winning by only one point.
Instead, the model strongly backs a team that wins outright in nearly 80% of simulations, a selection many survivor pool participants have not yet used. The pick is available through the model's Week 9 analysis.
