The 2026 MLB offseason carries the threat of a lockout, but it is also expected to produce a free-agency frenzy for elite starting pitching. The Milwaukee Brewers recently demonstrated how crucial a dominant rotation is to winning a championship, and a market headlined by Tarik Skubal and Freddy Peralta should trigger significant spending across the league.
Tarik Skubal, a two-time AL Cy Young Award winner, is widely linked to the Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers, but the prediction here favors a surprise move to the St. Louis Cardinals. With a roster full of young, cost-controlled talent, Cardinals president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom has the financial flexibility to add a true ace. Slotting Skubal at the front of the rotation would address St. Louis' biggest need and allow their young arms to develop gradually.
Freddy Peralta is projected to remain with the Tampa Bay Rays, a contrarian pick given widespread expectations he will leave. The Rays are likely anticipating a future salary floor and a new stadium, both of which incentivize increased payroll. Peralta previously thrived in Tampa Bay, posting a 3.25 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in the regular season, and has credited the organization for reviving his career.
The Washington Nationals are forecast to sign Trevor Rogers. Washington's offense produced the third-most runs in baseball (821) last season, yet the team finished 77-85 largely because its rotation recorded the fourth-fewest quality starts (36). Rogers, 29, owns a 3.16 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over his last 48 starts and would slot in as the No. 2 starter behind Cade Cavalli, pushing Connelly Early to a more comfortable No. 3 role.
Michael King, 31, is predicted to join the Chicago White Sox. Chicago's rotation finished 28th in quality starts (34) and 19th in WHIP (1.31), and the front office has financial flexibility this winter. King, likely seeking his last major contract, would become the face of a rotation that also includes Sean Burke, Davis Martin, and Hagen Smith.
Sonny Gray, nearing the end of his career, is expected to sign with the Atlanta Braves. Gray spent much of last season commuting to Nashville to be with his family, making the short flight from Atlanta a logical priority. The Braves prefer short-term deals with higher annual average values, and the fit is described as nearly perfect on paper.
Kevin Gausman, who turns 36 in January, is projected to the New York Mets on a two- or three-year deal. The Mets feel pressure to act despite high hopes for prospects Nolan McLean and Christian Scott in 2027. Gausman would serve as a No. 2 starter, and his contract could come off the books by 2029 alongside Bo Bichette's deal.
Japanese right-hander Kaima Taira, 26, posted a 1.36 ERA for the Seibu Lions and has been posted for bidding. While the New York Yankees will show interest, the Toronto Blue Jays are predicted to win the bidding war. Taira would slot in as Toronto's No. 3 starter behind Dylan Cease and José Soriano, moving Cody Ponce (recovering from an ACL tear) to the No. 5 role.
Foster Griffin, 31, earned his first All-Star selection after a 3.60 ERA in 31 starts split between the Washington Nationals and Cleveland Guardians. The San Francisco Giants, skeptical of ownership's willingness to spend on top-tier free agents, are seen as a landing spot for the cost-effective Griffin.
Adrian Morejon, one of baseball's best left-handed relievers with a 2.58 ERA and a 248-66 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 223.1 innings from 2024-26, is predicted to the Chicago Cubs. Chicago may emulate the Brewers' bullpen-heavy model, splurging on Morejon while still pursuing a front-line starter via trade.
Finally, Clay Holmes, a two-time All-Star (2022, 2024) entering his age-34 season, is forecast to the Baltimore Orioles. With Trevor Rogers potentially departing, Baltimore needs rotation stability. Holmes posted a 2.39 ERA in nine starts with the Mets last year and a 3.44 ERA over 267 innings the past two seasons. A two-year deal with a 2029 option would make him the Orioles' third starter.
