Oklahoma State quarterback Drew Mestemaker has entered the conversation as a potential first overall pick in the 2027 NFL Draft, but his decision-making under pressure is drawing scrutiny from evaluators.
Through Week 9 of the 2026 season, Mestemaker has posted a 13.0% turnover-worthy-play rate on pressured dropbacks, according to Pro Football Focus. That figure is more than double the 5.8% median for first-round quarterbacks in a historical comparison. Only Caleb Williams (15.3% in 2023) and Trevor Lawrence (13.2% in 2020) recorded higher rates in their final college seasons, though both had been significantly better the previous year.
The comparison shows Williams at 15.3% turnover-worthy plays with 6.8 yards per attempt under pressure in 2023, Lawrence at 13.2% with 8.3 yards per attempt in 2020, and Mestemaker at 13.0% with just 4.5 yards per attempt in 2026. Other notable first-round quarterbacks such as Jordan Love (10.9%, 2.8 YPA), Sam Darnold (10.5%, 11.0 YPA), Josh Allen (8.9%, 6.7 YPA), and Patrick Mahomes (8.5%, 9.4 YPA) also had elevated rates but often offset them with higher production.
Williams and Lawrence experienced bumpy starts to their NFL careers before developing into elite quarterbacks, underscoring that landing situation and development can outweigh concerning college numbers. However, Mestemaker's trend is moving in the wrong direction: his turnover-worthy-play rate under pressure rose from 8.3% in 2025 at North Texas to 13% in 2026 at Oklahoma State, with 13 such plays in 126 pressured situations (10.3% overall).
While Mestemaker has improved at avoiding sacks — down from roughly 21% of pressured plays last season to 11% this year — his yards per attempt on those plays has fallen from 5.6 to 4.5. Tape review shows he displays good footwork and accuracy when given time, but he sometimes forces throws into coverage instead of checking down, and his accuracy suffers when his feet are not set.
Historical precedents offer hope. Mahomes entered the NFL with an 8.5% turnover-worthy rate but averaged 9.4 yards per attempt and generated 14 big-time throws in his final college season. Love's rate jumped to 10.9% with only 2.8 yards per attempt, yet Green Bay selected him in the first round and his patience paid off. Allen's rate was 8.9% with declining production, but his physical tools made him a top-10 pick. Darnold posted a 10.5% rate but averaged 11.0 yards per attempt under pressure, showing an ability to create big plays.
Mestemaker's talent is evident, and he could still be the first quarterback selected in either the 2027 or 2028 draft. He has already made strides in sack avoidance, and the next step is improving his decision-making when defenses disrupt his timing. Having never started a varsity game at quarterback in high school — he was primarily a punter and safety before walking on at North Texas — his development curve remains steep. How much he refines his choices under pressure will likely determine just how early his name is called on draft night.
