BellaGoal

Chairman of the Board: Ahmed Hammam

Editor-in-Chief: Ayman Badra

World Sports

Bengals Favored Over Falcons in 2026 NFL Madrid Game as Model Backs Under

Bengals Favored Over Falcons in 2026 NFL Madrid Game as Model Backs Under
World Sports · 08:16:22 - Wednesday, 11 November 2026

The Cincinnati Bengals (5-2) and Atlanta Falcons (3-5) meet in Week 9 of the 2026 NFL season at Santiago Bernabéu in Madrid, with kickoff set for 9:30 a.m. ET. Cincinnati enters on a three-game win streak after quarterback Joe Burrow threw for 462 yards and five touchdowns in an overtime victory over the Titans. Atlanta fell to 3-5 after Michael Penix Jr. threw four interceptions in a 16-0 loss to Tampa Bay, a game in which the Buccaneers completed zero passes.

Odds and Predictions

Sportsbooks list the Bengals as 3.5-point favorites with an over/under of 52.5 points. The money line sits at Bengals -166, Falcons +150. SportsLine's simulation model, which has returned over $5,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since inception and entered Week 9 on a 60-51 run dating back to 2024, projects the Under 52.5 (-108) as the better value. The model forecasts 52 combined points and indicates one side of the spread hits in over 50% of simulations.

Key matchups feature Burrow, the NFL leader in passing touchdowns (20), against Falcons running back Bijan Robinson, the league's leading rusher (780 yards). Tee Higgins (726 receiving yards) and Ja'Marr Chase form a potent receiving duo, while Atlanta's defense allowed 324 rushing yards last week. Drake London remains a primary target for Penix, who must rebound quickly. The Over has cashed in three straight Bengals games, but this total is the highest of their season.

Share this article: