In the latest College Football Playoff Vibe Check, columnist Tom Fornelli assesses the shifting landscape after a weekend of decisive results. A new No. 1 is expected in both the major polls and the CFP rankings, with debate centering on whether No. 2 Georgia or No. 3 Utah should ascend.
Georgia made a statement with a 42-7 demolition of Ole Miss in Oxford. The Bulldogs scored touchdowns on each of their first three possessions to lead 21-0 early. Running back Nate Frazier and the rushing attack controlled the game, while quarterback Gunner Stockton completed 15 passes for 186 yards and four touchdowns, averaging 12.4 yards per attempt. Defensively, Georgia held the Rebels to 252 total yards and stifled both the run and pass.
After a soft early schedule, Georgia has since beaten Alabama in Tuscaloosa, Ole Miss in Oxford, and Florida in Atlanta. Their lone loss came against Auburn on a fumble by Stockton, and Fornelli argues the Bulldogs were the better team even in defeat. He considers Georgia the most reliable team in the country this season.
Alabama, ranked No. 5 in the CFP but No. 9 in the polls, traveled to Baton Rouge and defeated No. 14 LSU 31-13. However, the Crimson Tide were outgained 457-285 and ran 28 fewer plays. Alabama capitalized on three red-zone trips for 21 points, while LSU managed only 10 points on four red-zone visits and went 0-for-4 on fourth down. With several teams between Alabama and Tennessee losing, the Volunteers could join the same "pod" as the Tide, potentially causing Alabama to drop despite its best win of the year.
Two weeks after writing off Oregon following an 11-point loss to Illinois, the Ducks stunned No. 12 Ohio State 41-28. The score flattered the Buckeyes, who scored two late touchdowns in garbage time. Oregon improves to 6-3 and remains in contention for the Big Ten Championship if it wins out against Michigan, Michigan State, and Washington. Sportsbook odds for an Oregon playoff berth jumped from +2000 (4.8%) to +280 (26.3%) after the upset.
BYU's playoff hopes took a major hit with a 28-20 loss to Utah in the Holy War. The Cougars, previously No. 9 in the CFP rankings, face a difficult remaining schedule against Baylor, Cincinnati, and Kansas. With five teams tied at 4-2 in Big 12 play behind unbeaten Utah and 5-1 Texas Tech, BYU likely needs to win tiebreakers and reach the conference title game to stay alive.
Teams seeing their playoff hopes end this week include Cincinnati, Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, Oregon State, UNLV, and Virginia Tech.
Next week's key matchups likely to impact the playoff race are Texas at LSU, Utah at Arizona, USC at Indiana, Texas Tech at Oklahoma State, and Baylor at BYU.
Fornelli's projected CFP top 12 for Tuesday night: Georgia, Utah, Notre Dame, Miami, Indiana, Alabama, Texas, UCLA, Tennessee, Kentucky, Texas Tech, Wake Forest. Boise State remains the highest-ranked Group of Five team and claims the final spot.
