The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Chicago Bears meet on Sunday Night Football in a clash of hot teams. Chicago has won three straight, including a 34-17 victory over Seattle on Monday night, while Tampa Bay has won two in a row after a 16-0 shutout of Atlanta last Sunday.
The Buccaneers enter at 3-5 overall and 3-2 in NFC play, sitting second in the NFC South. The Bears are 6-2 overall and 4-2 in the conference, holding second place in the NFC North. Chicago will be without Kyle Monangai due to toe and thumb injuries, while Tampa Bay's Emeka Egbuka is active after a foot issue.
Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET at Soldier Field in Chicago. The Bears lead the all-time series 40-22, though Tampa Bay has won the last two meetings, including a 27-17 win in 2023.
Current odds list Chicago as a 6-point favorite with an over/under of 47.5 points. The money line has the Bears at -270 and the Buccaneers at +225. Both teams' against-the-spread records match their straight-up marks: Chicago 6-2, Tampa Bay 3-5.
Handicapper Matt Severance, who has worked in the industry since 2005, enters the game on an 8-0 run on NFL money-line picks and 5-1 on all NFL picks this season. He has also gone 14-7 on picks involving the Bears over recent years, returning nearly $500 per $100 wagered.
Severance is leaning toward the under on the 47.5-point total, noting the under has hit in three of the last five head-to-head matchups and is 6-4 in Tampa Bay's last 10 games and 5-4 in Chicago's last nine. He cites Chicago's eighth-ranked scoring defense, allowing 20 points per game, as a factor. A projection model suggests a final score of Chicago 28, Tampa Bay 20, but Severance believes the total may stay under 48. He also highlights a key X-factor that could sway the spread.
