The SEC could place five or more teams in the 12-team College Football Playoff, with multiple 9-3 teams potentially earning at-large bids depending on results over the final three weeks of the regular season.
The selection committee's first rankings raised questions, such as Alabama being ranked eight spots higher than Tennessee despite the Volunteers' head-to-head win. The conference's best path to five bids starts with its frontrunners winning out, followed by evaluating which 9-3 teams have the strongest résumés.
Ten wins virtually guarantees an at-large berth from the SEC. Currently, five teams could reach ten wins: Georgia, Alabama, Kentucky, Texas, and Tennessee. LSU, Ole Miss, and South Carolina each have three losses and need help.
Projected scenarios for five SEC bids
One plausible scenario: Georgia wins out and takes the SEC Championship; Alabama wins out and finishes as runner-up; Kentucky wins out to finish 10-2; Texas loses to LSU but beats Arkansas and Texas A&M to finish 9-3; Tennessee wins out to finish 10-2.
Another scenario: Georgia wins out and takes the SEC Championship; Alabama wins out and finishes runner-up; LSU wins out to finish 9-3; Texas loses to LSU but beats Arkansas and Texas A&M to finish 9-3; Tennessee loses to LSU but beats Texas A&M and Vanderbilt to finish 9-3.
A third scenario: Alabama wins out and takes the SEC Championship; Georgia loses to South Carolina and Alabama in the SEC Championship but beats Missouri and Georgia Tech to finish 10-3; South Carolina wins out to finish 9-3; Tennessee wins out to finish 10-2; Texas loses to LSU but beats Arkansas and Texas A&M to finish 9-3.
A fourth scenario: Alabama wins out and takes the SEC Championship; Georgia loses to South Carolina and Alabama in the SEC Championship but beats Missouri and Georgia Tech to finish 10-3; Kentucky wins out to finish 10-2; South Carolina wins out to finish 9-3; Tennessee wins out to finish 10-2; Texas loses to LSU but beats Arkansas and Texas A&M to finish 9-3.
Team outlooks
Georgia (8-1) is in the best shape for a top-four seed and a first-round bye after consecutive blowout wins over Florida and Ole Miss. The Bulldogs face Missouri and South Carolina to close the regular season.
Alabama (7-2) has the easiest remaining schedule among contenders with games against Vanderbilt, Chattanooga, and Auburn. The Crimson Tide have looked stronger defensively since October losses to Georgia and Tennessee.
Texas (7-2) leads the nation in ranked wins (4-0) and could absorb a third loss and still make the playoff. A loss at LSU would make the final two games against Arkansas and Texas A&M must-win.
Tennessee (7-2) owns two wins over top-10 opponents and is projected to win out against Texas A&M, LSU, and Vanderbilt. A loss to Texas A&M would make the LSU game a must-win.
Kentucky (7-2) needs to beat Florida, Missouri, and Louisville to finish 9-3 and stay on the bubble. The Wildcats' ranked wins over LSU and South Carolina could lose value if those teams drop further.
South Carolina (6-3) could finish with seven straight wins, including a potential upset of Georgia, giving the Gamecocks a strong case. The injury to quarterback LaNorris Sellers does not appear serious.
LSU (6-3) has zero ranked wins entering Week 11 but could add victories over Texas and Tennessee by winning out. The Tigers' playoff hopes hinge on a strong finish after a blowout loss to Alabama.
Ole Miss (6-3) lacks a quality win and has suffered two heavy defeats. The Rebels need teams ahead of them to falter and must pass the eye test in their final three games.
