The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race takes place Sunday at Homestead-Miami Speedway with three drivers mathematically eligible for the title. Kyle Larson holds a 67-point lead over Christopher Bell and a 70-point advantage over Denny Hamlin. William Byron won last week at Martinsville, while Larson has three playoff victories. Chase Briscoe starts on pole after a qualifying time of 32.396 seconds.
Odds from FanDuel list Larson as the +410 favorite, followed by Hamlin (+600), Bell (+650), Ryan Blaney (+700), and Tyler Reddick (+750). Byron is at +1100, with seven drivers priced under +1200.
DFS expert Mike McClure's simulation model, which has predicted 34 winners since 2021 including three playoff races in 2025, projects Larson to barely crack the top five despite his points cushion. The model cites Larson's recent struggles at comparable tracks and suggests he may race conservatively.
McClure's model highlights Ty Gibbs at +1700, noting his third-place finish at Martinsville and Joe Gibbs Racing's record nine victories at Homestead — more than all other active teams combined. Gibbs has 13 top-five finishes this season, matching his total from the previous two years. The model also backs two longshots at +2000 or longer.
