The NFL survivor pool has thinned significantly after another rough week for favorites, with the 49ers, Jets, Panthers, and Texans among the casualties. The Texans entered as 10.5-point favorites over the Giants. With four byes in Week 8, only 14 games are on the schedule, and Survivor Revival pools offer a second chance for eliminated players.
Popular matchups for survivor picks include the Bengals (-12.5) hosting the Titans and the Jaguars (-10) hosting the Colts, both featuring AFC South underdogs not positioned for upsets. Other games with spreads above a touchdown include Patriots (-7) vs. Dolphins, Cowboys (-7) vs. Cardinals, and Rams (-6.5) vs. Chargers.
The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, has turned its attention to Week 8. The model is up more than $5,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception and entered Week 8 on a 58-51 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024.
In Week 8 of the 2026 NFL season, the model is not confident in the 5-1 Kansas City Chiefs, who are 1.5-point and -115 money-line favorites against the 5-2 Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High on Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET. The Chiefs are coming off a 20-3 loss to the Seattle Seahawks, their worst performance of the year. Despite beating Denver 31-10 in the season opener on Sept. 14, the model gives the Chiefs a 47% win probability in Week 8, making them an extremely risky survivor pick. Patrick Mahomes has completed 64.9% of his passes for 1,474 yards with nine touchdowns and four interceptions in six starts. Running back Kenneth Walker III leads the rushing attack with 120 carries for 701 yards and six touchdowns, though he was held to 36 yards on 14 carries at Seattle.
The Broncos, defending AFC West champions, are on a three-game winning streak led by quarterback Bo Nix, who has completed 59.2% of his passes for 1,271 yards and seven touchdowns with three interceptions. The model has Kansas City winning just 51% of the time, indicating several other favorites are better plays despite the Chiefs' overall success.
Instead, the model is confidently backing a team many have not used in survivor pools to win outright in well over 70% of simulations. The identity of that team is available only at SportsLine.
