The Detroit Lions enter Week 9 of the 2026 NFL season after defeating the Minnesota Vikings, a win that ensures the 1972 Miami Dolphins remain the only team in NFL history to complete a perfect season. The Lions carry that momentum into a Sunday afternoon clash against the current Dolphins, who have won just one game this season.
Prediction markets and simulation models heavily favor Detroit. Polymarket gives the Lions a 75% chance to win, while the SportsLine Projection Model — which entered Week 9 on a 60-51 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024 — projects a Lions victory in 73% of its 10,000 simulations. Miami's win probability sits at 26% on Polymarket and 27% in SportsLine simulations.
Statistically, the mismatch is stark. Detroit boasts the league's top-ranked offense in yards per game and ranks third in points per game. Miami's offense sits 27th in yards and 31st in points, though the Dolphins have been competitive lately: each of their last four games has been decided by one possession. Defensively, Miami has been decent, which could test a Lions unit that struggled earlier but bottled up the Vikings in Week 8. Linebacker Jack Campbell suffered an injury in that game and will not play, though his recovery is described as encouraging.
For the Dolphins, the key question is whether quarterback Malik Willis and the offense can generate enough points to keep pace. On the spread, Lions to win by more than 6.5 points trades at 53% on Polymarket, with SportsLine simulations showing Detroit covering in 57% of runs. The over/under of 50.5 total points is nearly even at Polymarket (50% over, 51% under), though SportsLine projects the over in 64% of simulations.
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