The NFL survivor pool field has thinned significantly after another week where heavy favorites faltered. The 49ers, Jets, Panthers, and Texans all fell as favorites in Week 7, eliminating many entries. With four teams on bye, Week 8 features only 14 games, and Survivor Revival pools offer a second chance for those knocked out.
Popular matchups for survivor picks include the Bengals (-11.5) hosting the Titans, the Jaguars (-10) hosting the Colts, Patriots (-7) at Dolphins, Cowboys (-7) vs. Cardinals, and Rams (-6.5) vs. Chargers in an all-Los Angeles game. Both the Bengals and Jaguars face AFC South opponents viewed as unlikely to pull upsets.
The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates each game 10,000 times, expresses low confidence in the 5-1 Kansas City Chiefs as 1.5-point favorites over the 5-2 Denver Broncos at Empower Field on Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET. Despite a 31-10 win over Denver in the season opener, the model gives the Chiefs only a 47% win probability this week. Patrick Mahomes has completed 64.9% of passes for 1,474 yards with nine touchdowns and four interceptions in six starts, while running back Kenneth Walker III has 701 yards and six touchdowns on 120 carries. The Broncos, defending AFC West champions, ride a three-game winning streak behind quarterback Bo Nix (59.2% completion, 1,271 yards, seven touchdowns, three interceptions). The model projects this game as a near 50/50 split.
Instead, the model strongly backs a team that has been overlooked in many survivor pools, giving it an outright win probability exceeding 70% in simulations. The specific pick is available only through SportsLine.
The model entered Week 8 on a 58-51 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024 and has generated more than $5,000 in profit for $100 players on betting sites since its inception.
