With the College Football Playoff Selection Committee set to release its first top 25 rankings on November 3, a simulated Bowl Championship Series (BCS) standings offers a look at how the former system would order today's teams. The BCS, used from 1998 to 2013, combined the Harris Interactive Poll, the Coaches Poll, and an average of computer rankings (Billingsley, Colley, Massey, Sagarin, Wolfe) into a single score. The four-team playoff replaced the BCS in 2014, expanding to a 12-team format in 2024.
According to a simulation from BCSKnowHow, the current top 10 under the old formula would be: 1. Miami (0.9837), 2. Ohio State (0.9576), 3. Indiana (0.8408), 4. Georgia (0.8364), 5. Notre Dame (0.8043), 6. UCLA (0.7944), 7. Utah (0.7730), 8. Kentucky (0.7091), 9. BYU (0.6017), 10. Alabama (0.6313). The computers favor unbeaten records and strength of schedule, placing Miami ahead despite a weaker schedule, while Ohio State leads in several computer metrics.
Notable observations include Indiana's high computer ranking despite close Big Ten wins, Georgia's lone loss to Auburn as a heavy favorite, and Notre Dame's narrow loss at BYU barely denting its BCS score. UCLA remains unbeaten but lost quarterback Nico Iamaleava for the season. Utah tops the Big 12 contingent despite the weakest strength of schedule in the top 10. Kentucky leads the SEC after Week 8 with a signature overtime win over LSU.
The rest of the simulated top 25 features Texas (11th), LSU (12th), Ole Miss (13th), Texas Tech (14th), Wake Forest (15th), Tennessee (16th), Florida (17th), Houston (18th), SMU (19th), Arizona (20th), Northwestern (21st), Boise State (22nd), Missouri (23rd), Iowa (24th), and Wisconsin (25th). Boise State is the only Group of Six representative. Texas holds three top-25 wins per the AP poll but ranks behind Alabama in the computer composite.
Upcoming matchups such as Ohio State at USC, Indiana at Northwestern, Alabama at LSU, and BYU at Utah will heavily influence both the real CFP rankings and the simulated BCS order over the next five weeks.
