North Texas Mean Green (5-2, 3-0 American Athletic Conference) will host the FAU Owls (5-2, 2-1) on Thursday at DATCU Stadium in Denton, Texas, with kickoff scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET.
The Mean Green enter on a four-game winning streak, most recently defeating Navy by 10 points. The Owls are coming off a 51-49 shootout victory over Rice in Week 8, a game that featured 100 total points.
Oddsmakers list North Texas as 14-point favorites, with an over/under of 77.5 points — one of the highest totals of the season. The money line sits at North Texas -529 and FAU +425.
The SportsLine Projection Model, after 10,000 simulations, projects the Under 77.5 points to hit in 86% of scenarios, forecasting a combined 58 points. The model notes both teams rank among the top four in passing defense in the conference, while their run defenses are less stout, leading to an expected nearly 300 combined rushing yards that could consume clock and limit scoring.
Additionally, the model indicates one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. The model entered Week 9 on a 68-59 run on top-rated college football picks.
