Fifth-ranked Notre Dame (6-1) aims to strengthen its College Football Playoff resume when it faces Navy (2-5, 1-4 American Athletic Conference) on Saturday at noon ET in Foxborough, Massachusetts. The game will be played at Gillette Stadium, home of the NFL's New England Patriots. Notre Dame enters off a bye week following an upset loss at BYU in Week 7, while Navy has dropped consecutive games to North Texas and UTSA.
Betting Odds and Trends
The Fighting Irish are 30.5-point favorites, the largest spread of the week, with a money line of -6667. The over/under is set at 56.5 points. Both teams have seen the over hit in five of their seven games this season.
Model Predicts Under on Total Points
The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates each FBS game 10,000 times, projects the total to stay under 56.5 points. The model cites Notre Dame's defense, tied for fourth nationally allowing just 13.4 points per game, as a key factor. Navy's offense ranks seventh in the American Conference in scoring at 29.7 points per game but relies heavily on the run, averaging 308 rushing yards per game (third nationally). That strength meets a Notre Dame rush defense that ranks third nationally, surrendering only 67 yards per game on the ground. The model forecasts approximately 50 combined points, with the under hitting in 67% of simulations.
Spread Pick Leans Heavily to One Side
In addition to the total, the model indicates one side of the spread covers in well over 60% of simulations. The model entered Week 9 on a 68-59 run on top-rated college football picks, returning nearly $400 for $100 players.
