The Jacksonville Jaguars (5-2) aim to extend their winning streak to five victories in six games when they face the Baltimore Ravens (4-4) on Thursday Night Football at M&T Bank Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET. Jacksonville enters the matchup following a dominant 42-7 win over the Indianapolis Colts, while Baltimore suffered a 36-10 loss at Buffalo on Sunday.
Injury Impact and Quarterback Situation
The Ravens are dealing with significant quarterback injuries. Starter Lamar Jackson (thumb) and backup Tyler Huntley (toe) are both ruled out, leaving rookie third-stringer Joe Fagnano to make his first NFL start. For the Jaguars, running back Bhayshul Tuten is active after being listed as questionable with foot and ankle injuries.
Betting Lines and Model Projections
Jacksonville opens as a 9.5-point road favorite, marking the largest road favorite of the 2026 NFL season. The over/under for total points has dropped to 39.5 from an opening 48.5 due to Baltimore's quarterback situation. A proven simulation model, which has returned over $5,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception and entered Week 9 on a 60-51 run dating back to 2024, projects the game to go over the total. The model indicates the over hits in 64% of simulations, projecting 47 combined points. Historical trends support the over: it has cashed in three of the last four head-to-head meetings, in each of Jacksonville's last two games, and in six of Baltimore's last 10 games. Additionally, the over is 2-1 in Jaguars games when the line is under 45 points.
Key Offensive Players
Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence has completed 65.7% of his passes for 1,690 yards with 17 touchdowns and four interceptions through seven starts. Running back Bhayshul Tuten leads Jacksonville's ground attack with 110 carries for 492 yards and three touchdowns. Baltimore's offense relies heavily on running back Derrick Henry, who has rushed 158 times for 632 yards and eight touchdowns in eight games. The model also identifies one side of the spread as offering better value, though specific details are available through subscription services.
