The NFL survivor pool saw several upsets in Week 8, with losses by the Dallas Cowboys, Minnesota Vikings, Kansas City Chiefs, and New York Jets eliminating many participants. Survivor revival pools offer a second chance, and Week 9 features only 15 games due to two teams on bye.
Key matchups include the Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks, where the spread has shifted from -12.5 to -8.5 after quarterback Sam Darnold was ruled out with a quad injury and Gardner Minshew replaced Jacoby Brissett for Arizona. Other notable favorites are the Houston Texans (-6) against the Los Angeles Chargers, who are on a 10-game losing streak, and the San Francisco 49ers (-9.5) coming off a bye against the Las Vegas Raiders. The 49ers hold an 8-1 outright record in their last nine post-bye games.
Model projections and Week 9 pick
A projection model that simulates every NFL game 10,000 times entered Week 9 of the 2026 season on a 60-51 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024, with over $5,000 in profit for $100 players. The model is not confident in the New England Patriots, who are 3-point favorites against the Green Bay Packers at Gillette Stadium on Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET. Despite a 5-3 record, the Patriots have relied on one-score performances, including a 24-19 comeback win over the Miami Dolphins in Week 8.
Green Bay, led by quarterback Jordan Love, is 2-2 on the road. Love has completed 61.5% of his passes for 2,246 yards and 16 touchdowns with six interceptions. His top targets are Christian Watson (42 receptions, 708 yards, six touchdowns) and Matthew Golden (43 catches, 619 yards, four touchdowns). New England quarterback Drake Maye has completed 67.1% of his passes for 1,983 yards and 15 touchdowns with eight interceptions in eight starts. The Patriots will be without receiver A.J. Brown (knee) and running back TreVeyon Henderson (illness). The model projects New England winning by just one point, suggesting other favorites are better survivor plays.
Instead, the model is backing a team that wins outright in nearly 80% of simulations, a team many have not yet used in survivor pools. The specific pick is available through the model's subscription service.
