The Tennessee Volunteers welcome the Kentucky Wildcats to Neyland Stadium for a Week 10 SEC showdown with significant College Football Playoff implications. Kentucky enters at 7-1 overall and 5-1 in conference play, ranked No. 6 in the initial CFP rankings, while Tennessee sits at 6-2 overall and 3-2 in the SEC, ranked No. 13 and currently the second team out of the playoff field.
Historically, Tennessee has dominated the series with an 85-26-9 head-to-head record, but this Kentucky squad is considered one of the strongest to visit Knoxville in recent years. Kickoff is scheduled for 6:15 p.m. ET, and the Volunteers will wear their "dark mode" uniforms for the occasion.
Betting markets list Tennessee as 6-point favorites with an over/under of 49.5 points. The money line sits at Tennessee -205 and Kentucky +184.
The SportsLine Projection Model, after simulating the game 10,000 times, projects the total to finish under 49.5 points, with a combined score of around 46 points. The model indicates the under hits in 56% of simulations. Tennessee's defense has been a key factor, ranking third in the SEC in scoring defense at 16.3 points allowed per game. The Volunteers are 6-2 to the under this season, and all three of their SEC home games have gone under by at least two touchdowns. Kentucky has also trended toward the under, hitting in back-to-back games.
Beyond the total, the model identifies one side of the spread as hitting in well over 50% of simulations. The model entered Week 10 on an 80-77 run on top-rated college football picks.
