After a Week 8 that delivered a painful bad beat on a Patriots cover, the focus shifts to NFL Week 9 with five lock selections and a full slate of against-the-spread picks. The overall record stands at 20-19-1 on locks, 53-65-3 ATS, and 75-45-1 on the moneyline. All lines referenced are via DraftKings; kickoff times are Eastern.
Locks of the Week
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears (Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC). The Bears look like bona fide Super Bowl contenders after dominating the defending champion Seahawks in Seattle, with new defensive addition Jeffery Simmons making an immediate impact. Chicago returns home for another primetime matchup against a Buccaneers offense that completed just 7 of 14 passes for 64 yards in a 16-0 win over the Falcons. Over the past two games, Tampa Bay's passing attack has managed one touchdown. That may suffice against NFC South rivals, but keeping pace with Caleb Williams and Chicago's dominant defense will require more aerial production. The Bears are 3-1 ATS at home this season. Projected score: Bears 28, Buccaneers 20. Pick: Bears -6.5.
Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox). Weather played a role, but the Patriots' struggle to put away the Dolphins in Week 8 lingers as a concern. Drake Maye leads the NFL in total yards and total touchdowns from Weeks 4-8, yet he faces a Packers defense allowing just 14.6 points per game over the last five contests (third in the NFL). Meanwhile, Jordan Love ranks first in passing yards and completions of 20-plus air yards, and fourth in passing touchdowns. New England's defense is on upset alert. Projected score: Packers 23, Patriots 21. Pick: Packers +3.
Los Angeles Rams at Washington Commanders (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox). Jayden Daniels posted a 17.2% off-target rate in Week 8, the third-highest single-game mark of his career, despite a 27-10 win over Philadelphia. Washington hosts a Rams defense allowing 301.1 total yards per game (fifth in the league). If Daniels continues to misfire, Los Angeles can capitalize. The Commanders are 0-5 following a win since the start of last season with a -9.0 points-per-game differential. Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua could feast against a Washington secondary yielding a 100.6 passer rating (25th). Projected score: Rams 27, Commanders 21. Pick: Rams -5.5.
Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox). With trade rumors swirling, the Colts' line below a touchdown is tempting. Dallas' defense is poor, but Indianapolis is 2-13 over its last 15 games and allows 27.8 points per game (third-highest). The Cowboys offense could approach 30 points. Daniel Jones owns an NFL-worst 68.7 passer rating and is 3-10 as a starter since Week 9 last year with 13 touchdowns and 20 turnovers. Jonathan Taylor played a season-low 62.3% of offensive snaps in Week 8, further lowering Indy's ceiling. Projected score: Cowboys 30, Colts 17. Pick: Cowboys -6.
Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN). Minnesota suffered its first loss in Week 8, exposing an offense averaging 279.4 total yards per game (fourth-lowest) and 20 points per game (sixth-lowest). Buffalo leads the league with 33.3 points per game and scores touchdowns on 70% of red-zone trips (fifth-highest). Even if the Vikings defense holds, the Bills may not need 30 points to win. Detroit scored just 19 points to beat Minnesota last week. Projected score: Bills 24, Vikings 17. Pick: Bills -3.5.
Rest of the Bunch
Jaguars at Ravens (Thursday): Projected score Jaguars 28, Ravens 16. Pick: Jaguars -9.5.
Bengals at Falcons (in Madrid): Projected score Bengals 27, Falcons 26. Pick: Falcons +3.
Jets at Chiefs: Projected score Chiefs 30, Jets 20. Pick: Chiefs -9.5.
Lions at Dolphins: Projected score Lions 34, Dolphins 23. Pick: Lions -7.
Browns at Saints: Projected score Saints 24, Browns 20. Pick: Saints -2.5.
Giants at Eagles: Projected score Giants 24, Eagles 17. Pick: Giants -3.5.
Broncos at Panthers: Projected score Broncos 21, Panthers 20. Pick: Panthers +3.
Texans at Chargers: Projected score Texans 24, Chargers 20. Pick: Chargers +4.5.
Raiders at 49ers: Projected score 49ers 27, Raiders 20. Pick: Raiders +10.
Cardinals at Seahawks: Projected score Seahawks 33, Cardinals 20. Pick: Seahawks -10.5.
