College football handicappers are noting significant shifts in team performance from September to October. Ten teams saw their average cover margin drop sharply, led by Mississippi State (from +14.38 to -15.67) and Florida (from +10.38 to -16.00). Georgia also appears on the list, slipping from +10.25 to -6.00 despite continuing to win.
Games of the Week
No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 17 Florida: The pick is Florida +12.5 (-112) at DraftKings. The rationale cites Florida offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner's history against the Georgia defense; his Georgia Tech offenses went three-and-out only twice in three meetings. Georgia's defense allows 5.0 points per red-zone possession, ranking 130th nationally.
No. 22 Arizona at No. 13 Texas Tech: The pick is Under 54.5 (-108) at DraftKings. Arizona has improved 25.67 points per game against the spread month-to-month but scored only 1.7 points per possession in its lone loss at BYU. Texas Tech's defense remains solid at home, and both offenses are expected to struggle.
Lock of the Week
Mississippi State at No. 11 Texas: The pick is Mississippi State Team Total under 14.5 (-125) at DraftKings. Since quarterback Kamario Taylor's season-ending toe injury, the Bulldogs' offense has plummeted from 3.66 points per possession to 1.12. The game is on the road against a Texas defense that needed overtime to beat Mississippi State last season.
Fallen ACC Powers Battle
Clemson at Florida State: The pick is Florida State -6 (-108) at DraftKings. Clemson's offense has scored only 12 touchdowns with two passing touchdowns, the fewest in the country. Florida State, coming off a bye, is seen as more capable of putting points on the board.
This Was Supposed To Be A Big Game
No. 2 Ohio State at USC: The pick is Under 52.5 (-115) at FanDuel. Ohio State's quarterback situation is uncertain after Julian Sayin's injury; Luke Fahey and Tavien St. Clair may share snaps. USC's offense has struggled against good defenses (Wisconsin, Oregon, Washington), while Ohio State's defense remains very good.
Upset of the Week
No. 25 Wisconsin at Iowa: The pick is Wisconsin (+142) at DraftKings. Iowa's early 4-0 start included a fluky win over Michigan, and the Hawkeyes have since lost two of three while dealing with quarterback instability and the loss of leading rusher Kamari Moulton. Wisconsin's defense smothered USC last week and looks like the traditional Iowa-style team.
Season Record
Last week: 5-1. Season units: Games of the Week 10-6 (+3.02), Lock of the Week 4-4 (-0.48), Upset of the Week 2-6 (-2.50), Overall 21-27 (-7.11).
