South Africa recovered from 40 for 4 on day four to post 387 in their second innings, setting Australia a victory target of 288 at Newlands. Ryan Rickelton scored 101 and Wiaan Mulder made a career-best 115, the latter adding 36 for the last wicket with Kagiso Rabada. Australia's first innings total was 429, with Josh Inglis contributing 102, while Simon Harmer took four for 104.
Analytical tool WinViz gives the hosts a 54% chance of winning. Historically, the highest successful fourth-innings chase at this ground is Australia's 331 for four wickets in 2002. Only five other fourth-innings totals above 288 have been recorded at Newlands, all in defeats or draws.
The pitch has become more difficult as the match progressed; CricViz's PitchViz rating rose to 6.6 in the final session, the highest of the Test. South Africa's false shot percentage dropped to 11% on day four from 18% on day three, indicating more controlled batting despite increasing turn and occasional low bounce.
Travis Head is highlighted as a potential match-winner after his 123 off 83 balls in a similar chase during the Ashes last year. Australia have successfully chased targets of 282 and 279 since 2023, reversing a poor record in such situations between 2008 and 2019. The winner of this Test will finish the series atop the ICC Test rankings.
