Week 8 of the NFL season features five heavy favorites of -6 points or more, but historical betting trends suggest caution. Since the start of the season, favorites of -6 or more have covered just 8-21-3 against the spread (ATS), a 27.5% cover rate. The five games meeting that threshold this week are Jacksonville Jaguars (-10) vs. Indianapolis Colts, Dallas Cowboys (-7) vs. Arizona Cardinals, Cincinnati Bengals (-12.5) vs. Tennessee Titans, Los Angeles Rams (-6.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers, and New England Patriots (-7) vs. Miami Dolphins.
Another notable trend involves the Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos: each of their last seven meetings has gone under the total. This week Kansas City is favored by 1.5 points with a total of 41.5, which may influence prop bets and fantasy decisions for players like Patrick Mahomes, Jaylen Waddle, Kenneth Walker III, and Travis Kelce.
SportsLine's advanced model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has returned more than $5,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model's five-team parlay for Week 8 pays around 25-1 and includes the Over 46.5 points in Jaguars vs. Colts, with the model forecasting 56 combined points and a 67% Over probability. For daily fantasy sports, the optimizer highlights Cowboys running back Javonte Williams and Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins among its top picks for the main Sunday slate.
In fantasy football, the model projects Jaguars tight end Brenton Strange as a top-8 option at his position this week, with full positional rankings available. The model also favors the Rams (-6.5, 45.5 total) to cover against the Chargers, a pick that cashes in 55% of simulations.
Among expert picks, Larry Harstein (7-2 ATS over his last nine NFL selections) backs the Detroit Lions (-3) to cover against the Minnesota Vikings, citing the return of safety Brian Branch and the Vikings' injury to running back Aaron Jones. For Sunday Night Football, Emory Hunt (31-18-2 on his last 51 Eagles picks) supports the Washington Commanders (-5) and the under 45.5 points against a Philadelphia Eagles team missing quarterback Jalen Hurts and wide receiver DeVonta Smith.
On Monday Night Football, SportsLine's top-rated NFL expert R.J. White favors the Seattle Seahawks (-3) over the Chicago Bears, pointing to Seattle's league-leading pass defense and the Bears' league-worst 6.3 yards per play allowed on defense.
