The Baylor Bears (4-3, 2-2 Big 12) travel to Orlando to face the Central Florida Knights (4-3, 2-2 Big 12) on Friday at 7:30 p.m. ET at Acrisure Bounce House. Baylor is a 1.5-point favorite with an over/under of 48.5 points; both teams are 5-2 against the spread this season.
Baylor comes off a 25-24 loss at Kansas, while UCF earned a controversial 39-31 overtime win over BYU. The Knights are 4-0 at home in 2026, and Baylor leads the all-time series 2-1, including a 30-3 victory last year.
The SportsLine Projection Model, after 10,000 simulations, projects the game to go over 48.5 points, a pick that has hit in two of three head-to-head meetings and in six of the last ten UCF games. The model expects Baylor quarterback D.J. Lagway to throw for over 260 yards and two touchdowns, and UCF quarterback Keyone Jenkins to exceed 210 yards and two scores, projecting a combined 54 points.
In addition to the over, the model indicates one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. The model entered Week 9 on a 68-59 run on top-rated college football picks, returning nearly $400 for $100 players.
