Two 5-2 teams in the American Athletic Conference will meet on Thursday night as the FAU Owls travel to face the North Texas Mean Green. Florida Atlantic is 2-1 in conference play, while North Texas has won all three of its league games. The Mean Green enter on a four-game winning streak after a 10-point victory over Navy on Saturday. The Owls are coming off a 51-49 shootout win over Rice in Week 8, a game that produced 100 total points.
Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET at DATCU Stadium in Denton, Texas. North Texas opens as a 14-point favorite, with the over/under set at 77.5 points — one of the highest totals of the season. The money line lists North Texas at -529 and FAU at +425.
The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates each FBS game 10,000 times, projects the Under 77.5 as its top play. Despite both teams leaning heavily to the over this season, the model notes that this total is 13.5 points higher than any other Week 9 FBS game and 13.5 points above any previous game involving either team this year. The last four matchups in Texas featuring these programs have averaged just 60.3 points.
While both offenses are prolific, each defense ranks among the top four in the conference in passing defense. The model projects nearly 300 combined rushing yards, which would consume clock and limit scoring opportunities. It forecasts 58 combined points, with the Under hitting in 86% of simulations.
The model also indicates one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. SportsLine's model entered Week 9 on a 68-59 run on top-rated college football picks, returning nearly $400 for $100 players.
