Ohio State's 30-18 loss to USC on Saturday night has thrust the Buckeyes into survival mode in the College Football Playoff race. The defeat, coming with freshman quarterback Luke Fahey making his first start, marked Ohio State's second loss of the season and drastically reduced their margin for error. Fahey overthrew open receivers, struggled under pressure, and the offense managed only 18 points in one of the program's uglier recent performances.
Playoff Implications for Ohio State
If the Buckeyes lose to Oregon next week and win out, a 9-3 record with wins over Indiana and Iowa may not be enough to surpass other 9-3 SEC teams. Even a win over Oregon followed by a loss to Northwestern, Nebraska, or Michigan would leave the Ducks at 8-4, diminishing the value of that victory. Ohio State faces a level of November tension in Columbus unseen in the playoff era.
USC's Playoff Hopes Rise but Schedule Remains Daunting
USC's odds of making the playoff jumped from 5% to 25% after the win, but the Trojans face a difficult road ahead. After a bye, they travel to No. 4 Indiana and later host undefeated UCLA. A 17-point loss to Wisconsin earlier this season casts doubt on their ability to run the table, and a potential Ohio State collapse could make the win look hollow to the selection committee.
Wake Forest Deserves Respect Despite Weak Schedule
No. 14 Wake Forest has won its last four games against Stanford, NC State, Cal, and Virginia by a combined 187-31. While the Demon Deacons lack a signature win and play in a weaker conference, their consistent domination of inferior opponents stands out in a season without a truly dominant team.
Miami's Defense Shows Cracks
No. 1 Miami survived a 38-35 scare against North Carolina, trailing in both the third and fourth quarters. The Tar Heels' Billy Edwards threw for 341 yards and four touchdowns, exposing defensive vulnerabilities that could be exploited by Notre Dame next week and in the playoff. Miami's odds to make the CFP remain at 98.4%, but seeding could be affected.
Big 12 Picture Clarifies
Utah remains the only Big 12 team with better than 50% implied odds (70.6%) after a 49-25 rout of Cincinnati. Texas Tech rebounded with a 34-26 win over Arizona behind quarterback Thomas Castellanos, while Iowa State ended Oklahoma State's playoff hopes with a 51-49 victory. Utah can tighten its grip on a championship game berth with a win over BYU next week.
Group of 6 Race Gets Wild
Boise State survived a 46-45 thriller against Texas State after blowing a 28-3 halftime lead. Backup quarterback Max Cutforth threw for 131 yards and three touchdowns in a quarter and a half after starter Maddux Madsen left with an injury. The Broncos still control the Pac-12 race but face Oregon State next and possibly again in the conference championship. New Mexico, UTSA, and Liberty closed the gap in playoff odds.
Teams Eliminated from Playoff Contention
Auburn, Cincinnati, James Madison, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Oregon State, UCF, and Wisconsin saw their playoff hopes end this weekend.
Key Games Next Week
The most impactful games on the schedule: No. 1 Miami at No. 5 Notre Dame, No. 8 BYU at No. 6 Utah, No. 10 Alabama at No. 15 LSU, No. 3 Georgia at No. 12 Ole Miss, and Oregon at No. 2 Ohio State.
Projected Top 12 for Tuesday's Rankings
Miami, Georgia, Notre Dame, Indiana, Utah, UCLA, BYU, Kentucky, Alabama, Texas, Ohio State, Ole Miss. Boise State projected as the highest-ranked Group of 6 school.
