Caleb Williams opened the season with a 41.3-point fantasy outburst but missed Weeks 2-5 with a hamstring injury. Since returning, the Bears are 3-0, yet Williams has averaged just 20.2 fantasy points per game over his last three starts, ranking around QB15. The issue: only 22 rushing yards and four total touchdowns in that span. Chicago ranks 26th in passing touchdowns (eight) but second in rushing touchdowns (17), driven by a league-high 62.3% red-zone rush rate. In Week 9, Williams faces a Buccaneers defense that ranks top-five in points and yards allowed and top-10 against both run and pass, projecting him as QB16 — not a must-start, but still ahead of waiver-wire options.
Key Numbers to Know
Tyler Shough averages 39 pass attempts per game, keeping him in the QB12 conversation. The Broncos allow 14.8 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks not named Patrick Mahomes. Baker Mayfield has thrown just 14 passes in his last two games combined. Malik Willis carries a 14.8% off-target rate, worst among qualified starters. Jordan Love has suffered 23 dropped passes, nine more than any other quarterback. Bo Nix averages only 5.4 air yards per attempt, the league low. Jacoby Brissett leads with 59 red-zone pass attempts; no other quarterback has more than 48.
Waiver Wire Targets
J.J. McCarthy (Giants) — rostered in 24% of leagues, the former first-round pick has averaged 10.1 yards per attempt on his first 49 passes. Despite a tough matchup at Philadelphia, he is the preferred streamer if a quarterback is needed. Bo Nix (Broncos) — rostered in 61% of leagues, Nix has two touchdowns in each of his last two games and draws a favorable matchup at Carolina, though his passing yardage ceiling remains low. Geno Smith (Jets) — rostered in 53% of leagues, Smith scored 22 points in Week 8 and could be a Week 10 stash against a Bills defense that has allowed three quarterbacks to top 31 fantasy points.
DFS Plays
Top Play: Jared Goff (Lions) — projected for 17.5 points against a Dolphins defense that has yielded at least 25 fantasy points to three straight opposing quarterbacks; only Kyler Murray failed to reach 19. Detroit's offense should operate freely. Contrarian Play: Tyler Shough (Saints) — high volume against a Browns defense that struggles against the run but defends the pass well; a potential shootout could inflate Shough's fantasy output despite inefficiency.
Full Week 9 projections for every position are available and will be updated throughout the week.
