The NFL survivor pool has thinned significantly after another difficult week for favorites, with the 49ers, Jets, Panthers, and Texans among the casualties. Week 8 features only 14 games due to four byes.
Heavy favorites drawing attention include the Bengals (-11.5) hosting the Titans, the Jaguars (-10) hosting the Colts, the Patriots (-7) versus the Dolphins, the Cowboys (-7) versus the Cardinals, and the Rams (-6.5) versus the Chargers.
The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates each NFL game 10,000 times, has returned more than $5,000 for $100 players on top-rated picks since its inception and entered Week 8 on a 58-51 run dating back to 2024.
The model expresses low confidence in the 5-1 Kansas City Chiefs, who are 1.5-point favorites against the 5-2 Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High on Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET. Despite a 31-10 win over Denver in the season opener, the model gives the Chiefs only a 47% win probability following their 20-3 loss to the Seattle Seahawks.
Patrick Mahomes has completed 64.9% of his passes for 1,474 yards with nine touchdowns and four interceptions in six starts. Running back Kenneth Walker III has carried 120 times for 701 yards and six touchdowns, though he was limited to 36 yards on 14 carries at Seattle.
The Broncos, defending AFC West champions, are on a three-game winning streak led by quarterback Bo Nix, who has completed 59.2% of his passes for 1,271 yards, seven touchdowns, and three interceptions. The model views the matchup as a 50/50 split.
Instead, the model is confidently backing a team that has been overlooked in many survivor pools, projecting an outright win in well over 70% of simulations.
