No. 12 Ole Miss hosts Auburn on Halloween afternoon at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, Mississippi, with kickoff set for 12:45 p.m. ET. Both SEC teams are looking to bounce back after losses to ranked opponents.
Ole Miss enters at 5-2 overall and 3-2 in conference play following a 34-27 defeat at Texas. Auburn sits at 4-3 overall and 2-3 in the SEC after a 38-17 loss to LSU, which came a week after the Tigers upset then-No. 1 Georgia.
The Rebels will be without star running back Kewan Lacy, who dislocated his shoulder against Texas. That puts added pressure on quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, who has thrown for 1,926 yards and 16 touchdowns this season. Auburn counters with dual-threat quarterback Byrum Brown, who has accounted for 1,842 total yards.
Ole Miss has won the last two meetings in the series, snapping a six-game winning streak by Auburn.
The latest odds list Ole Miss as an 11.5-point favorite with an over/under of 57.5 points. On the money line, the Rebels are -455 (risk $455 to win $100) while Auburn is +350.
A projection model that simulates each FBS game 10,000 times leans toward the Under on the 57.5-point total, hitting at a 52% rate. The model notes both teams are statistically better at scoring than defending; Ole Miss has not scored fewer than 27 points in any game this season, though Lacy's absence makes the offense more one-dimensional. Auburn has been held to 17 points or fewer three times in seven games. This is the highest over/under for an Auburn game this year, yet only once in five SEC contests have the combined points exceeded 51.
The model also indicates one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time. It enters Week 9 on a 68-59 run on top-rated college football picks, returning nearly $400 for $100 players.
