Not long after the Milwaukee Brewers captured the 2026 World Series title, the 2026-27 MLB offseason opened under a cloud of labor uncertainty. The current collective bargaining agreement expires at 11:59 p.m. ET on Dec. 1, 2026, and owners are widely expected to lock out the players, halting all transactions until a new deal is reached.
1. How Long Will the Lockout Last?
The lockout would be the sport's first since the 99-day stoppage in 2021-22, which shortened spring training but preserved a 162-game season. If the upcoming lockout extends past mid-March 2027, regular-season games are likely to be lost. The core dispute centers on owners' push for a salary cap, which the MLB Players Association has historically rejected. A prolonged standoff could risk a 60-game reduction, which would extend national broadcast contracts and delay a planned media-rights windfall.
2. What Will the Next CBA Look Like?
Beyond the cap debate, the next agreement is expected to restructure revenue sharing to distribute local broadcast money more evenly. Other potential changes include expanding the postseason from 12 to 14 teams, adding two expansion franchises to reach 32 clubs, shortening the regular season to 154 games, introducing an international draft, and revising the competitive balance tax, draft rules, free agency, and arbitration systems.
3. Where Will Tarik Skubal Sign?
Despite a weak overall free-agent class, two-time American League Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal headlines the market. The 30-year-old left-hander is projected to command the largest pitcher contract in history, potentially exceeding $400 million. The Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets, and Chicago Cubs are considered the leading suitors. Other notable free agents include Freddy Peralta, Michael King, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Trevor Rogers, Adrian Morejon, and Teruaki Sato. A pre-lockout spending spree, similar to the $1.7 billion committed in November 2021, could accelerate deals before the Dec. 1 deadline.
4. Blockbuster Trades on the Horizon?
Trade candidates such as Francisco Lindor, Mason Miller, Spencer Strider, Hunter Greene, Ketel Marte, and Jacob deGrom could move this winter, though salary assumptions may be complicated by CBA uncertainty. The 2021-22 lockout saw only minor trades before the shutdown; major deals may wait until a new agreement is in place.
5. Who Gets the No. 1 Draft Pick?
The draft lottery is scheduled for Dec. 8, 2026, determining the top six picks for the 2027 MLB Draft. Sixteen non-playoff teams will participate, with the Colorado Rockies, Los Angeles Angels, and Oakland Athletics each holding a 19.1% chance at the No. 1 selection. The San Francisco Giants and Pittsburgh Pirates are excluded due to lottery-pick restrictions. Early favorites for the top pick are University of Florida shortstop Brendan Lawson and Mississippi State left-hander Tomas Valinicius.
