A computer simulation model that has simulated every NFL game 10,000 times has released its Week 9 longshot parlay, a six-leg combination that could pay out well over $1.5 million on a $10 bet. The model, which has returned more than $5,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, enters Week 9 on a 60-51 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024.
Chargers' First-Drive Trend Highlighted
Among the notable trends, the Los Angeles Chargers have scored on their opening drive in six consecutive games as home underdogs. As 5.5-point underdogs hosting Houston, the Chargers offer several first-drive betting options: a touchdown at +353, a passing touchdown at +546, a rushing touchdown at +1020, or a field goal at +402. Houston has allowed just one first-drive touchdown all season.
Other Home Underdogs in Week 9
Other home underdogs in Week 9 include the Indianapolis Colts (+5.5) versus the Dallas Cowboys, the Miami Dolphins (+6.5) against the Detroit Lions, and the Minnesota Vikings (+3) versus the Buffalo Bills on Monday night.
Jameson Williams Receiving Yards Prop
One of the six parlay legs backs Lions wide receiver Jameson Williams to record 70 or more receiving yards against the Dolphins at +200. Williams recently posted 70 yards against the Vikings' top-ranked pass defense, and the Dolphins rank last in passer rating allowed, completion percentage allowed, and passing yards per attempt allowed, while also allowing the fewest sacks. Miami has given up 70-plus receiving yards to a wide receiver in each of the last three weeks. Williams has averaged 77.5 receiving yards over his last four games, reaching 70 yards in three of those outings, all against top-10 pass defenses. The model projects Williams for 72 receiving yards on Sunday.
The parlay also includes five additional Week 9 picks from the model, including two touchdown scorer props each returning over +1200.
