Wednesday features a 12-game NBA slate headlined by the Philadelphia 76ers visiting the Indiana Pacers at 7 p.m. ET. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, is backing the 76ers as 5.5-point favorites to cover the spread. The over/under for total points in the 76ers-Pacers matchup is set at 235.5, down two points from the opening line.
The 76ers have started the 2026-27 season 3-1 with a new-look lineup featuring LeBron James, Jaylen Brown, Joel Embiid, and Tyrese Maxey. Their only road game so far resulted in a 106-100 win over the defending champion Knicks. Philadelphia ranks sixth in scoring defense, allowing 107 points per game. The Pacers are 2-2 overall and 0-1 at home. The model projects the 76ers to cover in 55% of simulations.
Additional expert picks for Wednesday include Orlando Magic guard Anthony Black to score over 13.5 points (-122). With Jalen Suggs and Paolo Banchero sidelined, Black is expected to assume starting point guard duties. He averaged 17.8 points per game in 23 contests without Suggs last season and scored 18 points against the Knicks when Suggs exited on Sunday.
Houston Rockets forward Amen Thompson is favored to exceed 25.5 combined points and rebounds (-125) against the Milwaukee Bucks. With Alperen Sengun (back) and Steven Adams (calf) out, the Rockets may deploy smaller lineups. Thompson has grabbed at least 10 rebounds in three of his first four games while averaging 17.0 points on 53.2% shooting. The Bucks play at the league's second-fastest pace and rank 19th in defensive rating, creating opportunities for Thompson.
Combining the three picks — 76ers -5.5, Black over 13.5 points, and Thompson over 25.5 points plus rebounds — into a parlay would yield a +525 payout (risk $100 to win $525). The SportsLine model has returned nearly $19,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks since 2018, including five straight seasons of four-digit profit. It enters Week 2 on a 26-10 (72%) run on top-rated spread picks dating back to last season.
