The Cleveland Browns (5-2) visit the Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2) on Sunday in a pivotal AFC North clash that could reshape the division race. Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET on CBS, with weather forecast calling for cloudy skies early, partial sunshine later, and a high near 69 degrees.
By combined winning percentage, this is the third-best matchup between the rivals in Week 8 or later over the past 50 years. The Browns are receiving moderate against-the-spread support as 3-point underdogs, while the total has been bet down to 44.5 points. A same-game parlay featuring the Pittsburgh money line and the alternate under 44.5 is priced at +104 on FanDuel.
History weighs heavily on Cleveland: the Browns have lost 22 consecutive regular-season games in Pittsburgh, one shy of the all-time NFL head-to-head road losing streak held by the 1992-2014 Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions. Pittsburgh has covered the spread in each of the last eight meetings. Cleveland's lone recent victory in the Steel City came in the 2020 wild-card round (48-37), played without fans due to COVID-19 restrictions. The Browns are also seeking their first regular-season sweep of the Steelers since the 1970 merger, a 34-season drought that stands as the longest in any NFL divisional series.
Cleveland's surprising start has been fueled by clutch performances from quarterback Deshaun Watson and first-year offensive coordinator Todd Monken. Watson has engineered a game-winning score in the final four minutes or overtime in each of the team's five victories, making the Browns only the second team since 1970 to do so (the 2016 Detroit Lions being the other). Three of those wins came on field goals in the final 10 seconds of regulation, an NFL first. Watson joins Troy Aikman (1990) and Matthew Stafford (2016) as the only quarterbacks since 1970 with a game-winning drive in each of his team's first five wins. He has thrown four touchdowns and zero interceptions in the final two minutes of halves this season. Monken is the +425 second favorite for NFL Coach of the Year behind Baltimore's John Harbaugh (+300).
Pittsburgh has found its rhythm since a slow start, averaging 26.0 points per game over the last five weeks after managing just 11.5 in the first two. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has thrown 12 touchdown passes from Weeks 3 through 7, tied for the league lead, while running back Jaylen Warren leads the NFL with 705 yards from scrimmage since Week 3. The Steelers are coming off the league's first-ever regular-season game in Paris. Cleveland's defense has not allowed a 300-yard passer in 52 straight games, and Rodgers is listed at +660 to reach that mark. Pittsburgh has dominated AFC North home games lately, going 10-1 straight up and 11-0 against the spread in its last 11 divisional home contests, tied for the second-longest such cover streak in NFL history.
Projection models favor the Steelers, with SportsLine predicting a 27-17 Pittsburgh victory. An upset would give Cleveland a crucial tiebreaker and raise its playoff probability from 35.5% to 57.2%. The Browns have not started a season 6-2 or better in the Super Bowl era since 1994, a 28-year drought tied for the second-longest in league history.
