Week 10 college football odds feature slim lines across several high-profile ranked matchups. In the SEC alone, Alabama visits LSU as a 5.5-point underdog, Georgia travels to Ole Miss at +3.5, and Texas faces Missouri at +2.5. A top-5 showdown sees No. 1 Miami at No. 4 Notre Dame, with the Fighting Irish favored by 5.5 points. Out west, BYU seeks a fourth straight win over Utah, with the Utes favored by 5.5 points at home.
A proven computer model that simulates every FBS game 10,000 times entered the week with an 80-77 record on top-rated picks this season. The model has locked in picks for every FBS matchup, projecting three upsets in ranked games according to poll rankings.
Among the model's top recommendations: Ohio State (-7.5, 46.5) is projected to cover against Oregon in a 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff. The Buckeyes, coming off a loss at USC, are expected to benefit from freshman quarterback Luke Fahey's comfort at home against a Ducks defense that has allowed more passing touchdowns than all but three Big Ten teams. Ohio State has covered 80% of home games since the start of 2025 and is projected to win by double digits, covering more than 60% of the time.
Another highlighted pick: Oklahoma (+6.5, 44.5) covers at Florida well over 50% of the time. The Gators have lost three of four games, each by 19-plus points, and lead the SEC in penalty yards. Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer has averaged 296.5 total yards with four passing touchdowns and zero turnovers over his last two games, providing stability. The model also projects the Over to hit in 58% of simulations.
Notable Week 10 Games
Wednesday, Nov. 4: Ball State at UMass (-3, 48.5); Toledo at Sacramento State (+25.5, 53.5); Central Michigan at Eastern Michigan (-1.5, 44.5).
Thursday, Nov. 5: UTSA at FAU (+7, 73.5); James Madison at Southern Miss (+14.5, 57.5).
Friday, Nov. 6: Virginia Tech at SMU (-6, 56.5); South Florida at East Carolina (-2.5, 39.5); Nebraska at Illinois (+4.5, 49.5); New Mexico at Nevada (+9.5, 37.5); TCU at Arizona (-8.5, 43.5).
Saturday, Nov. 7: BYU at Utah (-5.5, 48.5); Texas at Missouri (+2.5, 42.5); UCLA at Minnesota (+5.5, 39.5); Alabama at LSU (-5.5, 52.5); Cincinnati at Houston (-10.5, 62.5); Oregon at Ohio State (-7.5, 46.5); Kentucky at Tennessee (-6.5, 50.5); Air Force at Army (-3, 44.5); Miami at Notre Dame (-5.5, 57.5); Michigan State at Michigan (-13.5, 39.5); Georgia at Ole Miss (+3.5, 56.5); Oklahoma at Florida (-6.5, 45.5).
