Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal is set to hit free agency this winter, and the two-time Cy Young winner is expected to shatter MLB pitching contract records both in total value and average annual value.
Current Record Holders
By total value, Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto holds the record with a 12-year, $325 million deal signed before the 2024 season. For average annual value (AAV), Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander share the pitcher record at $43.33 million per year (excluding Shohei Ohtani's $70 million AAV as a two-way player).
Expert Predictions
CBS Sports analysts offered their contract projections for Skubal:
Mike Axisa: Seven years, $325.5 million ($46.5 million AAV), breaking both total guarantee and AAV records for a pitcher. Expects opt-out clauses.
Dayn Perry: Eight years, $350 million, also setting new records for total value and AAV. Notes Skubal's dominant return from elbow issues and a thin free-agent class could drive up the price.
Matt Snyder: Eight years, $400 million, establishing new highs for guarantee and AAV. Suggests teams may limit years due to injury risk, but anticipates opt-outs after years three and five.
All three experts agree Skubal will surpass existing pitcher records, with Scott Boras representing him likely to push for historic numbers despite ongoing CBA negotiations aimed at curbing spending.
